Estimates were made for 48 Sub-Saharan African countries and territories in the IDF Africa (AFR) Region. For this edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas, a total of 25 data sources (from 20 countries) were selected. About half (58%) of the countries in the IDF AFR Region lack high-quality in-country data sources. Only one country (Zambia) had studies conducted within the past five years.
Despite the lowest prevalence estimate of 4.5% among IDF Regions, the expected increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2045 is the highest 129% reaching 55 million. The AFR Region is also predicted to have the highest increase of 107% in the number of people with impaired glucose tolerance by 2045 reaching 117 million. The proportion of undiagnosed diabetes is also highest in the AFR Region with 53.6%. Only 12.6 billion USD was spent on diabetes in AFR Region, representing 1.3% of the total spent worldwide, despite the region being home to 4.5% of people with diabetes worldwide.
| At a glance | 2000 | 2011 | 2021 | 2030 | 2045 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes estimates (20-79 y) | |||||
| People with diabetes, in 1,000s | 2,532.9 | 14,700.0 | 23,633.9 | 33,446.0 | 55,254.4 |
| Age-adjusted comparative prevalence of diabetes, % | 1.2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| People with undiagnosed diabetes, in 1,000s | - | - | 12,658.6 | - | - |
| Proportion of people with undiagnosed diabetes, % | - | - | 53.6 | - | - |
| Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) estimates (20-79 y) | |||||
| People with IGT, in 1,000s | - | 32,800.0 | 52,151.4 | 70,598.3 | 116,726.7 |
| Age-adjusted comparative prevalence of IGT, % | - | 9.7 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 14.1 |
| Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) estimates (20-79 y) | |||||
| People with IFG, in 1,000s | - | - | 40,925.2 | 55,200.0 | 84,700.0 |
| Age-adjusted comparative prevalence of IFG, % | - | - | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| Mortality attributable to diabetes (20-79 y) | |||||
| Deaths attributable to diabetes | - | 344,500.0 | 416,163.0 | - | - |
| Proportion of diabetes-related deaths in people under 60 y, % | - | - | - | - | - |
| Type 1 diabetes estimates in children and adolescents | |||||
| New cases of type 1 diabetes (0-14 y), in 1,000s | - | 5.9 | 7.7 | - | - |
| New cases of type 1 diabetes (0-19 y), in 1,000s | 3.5 | - | 19.7 | - | - |
| Type 1 diabetes (0-14 y), in 1,000s | - | 36.1 | 26.3 | - | - |
| Type 1 diabetes (0-19 y), in 1,000s | 9.5 | - | 59.5 | - | - |
| Hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (HIP) (20-49 y) | |||||
| Live births affected by HIP | - | - | 4,102,030.1 | - | - |
| Prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), % | - | - | 13.0 | - | - |
| Live births affected by other types of diabetes first detected in pregnancy | - | - | 553,659.3 | - | - |
| Live births affected by other types of diabetes detected prior to pregnancy | - | - | 457,839.0 | - | - |
| Diabetes-related health expenditure | |||||
| Total diabetes-related health expenditure, USD million | - | 2,800.0 | 12,585.6 | 43,127.5 | 46,702.0 |
| Total diabetes-related health expenditure, ID million | - | - | 32,300.7 | 61,383.0 | 69,350.8 |
| Diabetes-related health expenditure per person, USD | - | 762.7 | 547.1 | 1,886.0 | 1,434.8 |
| Diabetes-related health expenditure per person, ID | - | - | 1,404.0 | 2,716.4 | 2,116.2 |
| Demographics | |||||
| Total adult population (20-79 y), in 1,000s | 217,888.0 | 387,000.0 | 527,155.5 | 696,000.0 | 1,056,284.8 |
| Population of children (0-14 y), in 1,000s | 242,277.0 | - | 469,013.6 | - | - |
| Population of children and adolescents (0-19 y), in 1,000s | - | - | 589,563.9 | - | - |